Securing national fuel supplies amid the geopolitical turmoil

DAR ES SALAAM: OIL tankers journeying through the Strait of Hormuz have once again come under attack in recent days. It is the latest reminder that the ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran in June remains highly precarious and instability is set to continue for the foreseeable future.

With the Strait serving as the shipping route for around 20 percent of global oil supplies, and approximately 60 percent of Tanzania’s petroleum products sourced from the Middle East, the resumption of hostilities and the potential impact on the economy and livelihoods of citizens, cannot be ignored.

The persistent uncertainty underscores the importance of continued efforts to effectively navigate geopolitical turmoil, avoiding shortages experienced elsewhere in the region and keeping any associated price rises to an absolute minimum.

The war, which originally broke out in February 2026, sent shock waves through the energy sector, severely disrupting global petroleum infrastructure and supplies. Oil wells were damaged, refineries destroyed and fuel storage facilities went up in flames.

With ships unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and hundreds stranded therein for weeks on end, it quickly became apparent that serious and widespread shortages were on the cards prompting several Gulf states and oil companies to declare force majeure and the International Energy Agency to describe the war as creating the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.

The impact on global prices was almost immediate, reaching a peak of 118.35 US dollars per barrel in March 2026, up from 72.48 US dollars the day before strikes commenced.

A secure and stable fuel supply is essential for a functioning state, so much so that it is considered a critical national security risk. Without fuel, daily life, and the economy, quickly grind to a halt.

People can’t travel to work, businesses can’t turn on the lights, farmers can’t get their produce to market before it spoils, and hospitals can’t run the generators they need as back up.

The damage resulting from running out of fuel in both the short and long term would be severe. Put simply, running out was not an option.

As soon as the conflict broke out the Ministry of Energy brought together the relevant institutions, including the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), to evaluate the situation and devise an appropriate emergency response plan.

Keenly aware that those countries that failed to get an arrangement in place would be highly vulnerable in the coming weeks and months, we agreed to move quickly and prioritise security of supply.

International suppliers were engaged against the backdrop of a fast-developing crisis in which several companies had issued a force majeure. Time was tight but consultations were undertaken with key energy sector institutions, and a total of 11 international suppliers were engaged by the TPDC and the Petroleum Bulk Procurement Agency (PBPA) to find the best solution.

Suppliers were only selected after careful evaluation of which offered the best balance between price, delivery reliability, and security of supply. Single-sourcing was not pursued. Although the pool of suppliers able to guarantee delivery against the backdrop of war in the Middle East was inevitably smaller than in peace time.

Having determined the best option that guaranteed uninterrupted supply, we secured the necessary supplies for the country to keep the economy going, avoid major shortages and keep pump prices as competitive as possible given the circumstances.

You do not have to look too far to see the problems encountered by other countries in achieving the same outcome. Kenya, for example, suffered from both delivery delays and significantly higher prices in the weeks that followed.

Six months on from the start of the crisis uncertainty persists and we must continue to plan on that basis. The impact of the war is far from over, but we are forging a route forward, nonetheless. Taking the decisions we need to, to keep the economy moving and ensure that essential services can function.

Collaborating with our international partners as we continually monitor and reassess the ways in which global events shape the choices we must make domestically.

Investing in supporting infrastructure and ensuring that  government is ready to take quick and decisive action when the circumstances demand and the stakes are high. We cannot control events in the Strait of Hormuz. We can control whether Tanzania is ready for them.

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